Early voting data shows that Donald Trump is leading significantly over Hillary Clinton as higher numbers of Trump supporters are turning in their mail-in ballots.
Republicans have voted in huge numbers in Florida, indicating that Trump is very likely to get the most amount of votes in this must-win State.
According to Reddit:
Of course, people would say that McCain and Romney held a higher lead with mail-in ballots in Florida than Trump (assuming that most republicans will vote for the republican candidate — which they most likely will).
That is true, but it is highly misleading. If holding a lead in mail-in ballots actually mattered, then both McCain and Romney should have won Florida, yet they did not.
Trump’s campaign is generating much more excitement than Hillary’s campaign, so Trump’s supporters are more likely to turnout in-person to vote, as opposed to just mailing in a ballot.
That is how Obama won Florida in 2008 despite losing the mail-in ballot count — and it will be how Trump will win Florida in 2016. In fact, the very fact that the Democrats aren’t ahead in mail-in ballots should be highly concerning for the Hillary campaign, since it is unlikely that many of her supporters would actually turn out in-person to vote for her.
Same logic applies in North Carolina. I don’t have the exact number, but I believe that the republicans are requesting main-in ballots slightly more than Democrats.
The fact that the republican lead with mail-in ballot requests in 2016 is less than their lead in 2008 and 2012 is irrelevant. If the Democrats wish to stand any chance in NC, then they should be the ones ahead with ballot requests.
tl;dr Hillary’s supporters are more likely to vote via mail-in ballot than Trump’s supporters. The fact that the republicans are leading in mail-in ballot requests (no matter how small that lead may be) is a very good sign for Trump.
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