Check out our comprehensive moneyline odds converter guide below, which gives you all that you need to know about moneyline betting.
When making a sports bet, there are several different types of bets and ways to read and understand odds. Moneyline betting is one of the seven most popular bet types, including point spreads betting, parlay betting and totals betting. When it comes to reading odds, it can be presented to the bettor differently. While there are Fractional and Decimal odds as well, you will be learning about American plus/minus odds. These are the odds generally used in Moneyline betting and there are multiple calculations you can do to get a more accurate estimate of your win probability and profit margin.
This article will cover how to read odds and then go into more detail on how to calculate the possible profit on your bet as well as how to convert those odds to a win percentage. It will also state how these conversions and percentages are beneficial when calculating your break-even percentage and handicapping a game.
Odds and How to Convert Them
Moneyline odds are most often presented in America’s plus/minus format. This means that the favorite to win will more than likely have unfavorable odds and the underdog will have favorable odds. The odds are based on what you need to bet to win $100 when it’s a negative number or what you can win should you bet $100 if it’s a positive number.
The favorite to win will always have unfavorable odds since more people will place a bet on them to win and as a result, the profit is lower. This is to balance the sportsbook and protect the bookmaker’s overall profit. The underdog will always offer more lucrative odds, with the chance to make big profits, but their probability of winning is lower and usually for a reason.
For example, let’s say Team A has odds of -200, while Team B has odds of +150. Team A is the clear favorite to win in this case, while Team B is the underdog, expected to lose. The -200 odds for Team A means that you have to bet $200 to win a profit of $100. So, if you made a bet of $200 and won $100, you’ll receive a total return of $300. In the case of the +150 odds for Team B, the plus sign means that if you bet $100, you can receive a profit of $150 if you win, which is a total return of $250.
Calculating Profit Margin
Although moneyline betting odds are calculated on $100, either betting it or winning it, that doesn’t mean you have to make a bet of $100 or win $100. No matter what amount you bet, there is a way to calculate the profit margin of your bet quickly. This can also be called the risk/return number and players can calculate it by dividing the moneyline by 100.
After working out the risk/return number, you can divide or multiply it with your bet amount to see your possible profits. If you’re working with minus odds, you’ll divide your bet with the risk/return number. While if you’re working with plus odds, you’ll multiply your bet with the risk/return number.
Let’s take the example above. Team A has betting odds of -200. So you’ll divide 200 by 100, which gives you a total of 2. That means that to make a profit, you’ll have to risk 2x whatever profit you’re making. So if you’re betting $50, you’ll say $50 divided by 2 equals $25 possible profit. This gives you a total return of $75.
Step 1: 200/100 = 2 Risk/Return Figure
Step 2: $50/2 = $25 Total Profit
Step 3: $50 + $25 = $75 Total return
In the same way, if we look at Team B’s odds of +150, we’ll multiply it at the end to see the possible profit:
Step 1: 150/100 = 1.5 (Risk/Return Figure)
Step 2: $50 x 1.5 = $75 (Total Profit)
Step 3: $50 + $75 = $125 (Total Return)
Converting Odds to No-Vig Percentages
When looking at Moneyline odds, or any other odds for that matter, it’s crucial to remember that these odds have a vig percentage, also known as juice. Vig refers to the cut that the bookmakers take of the odds, so you need to calculate the no-vig percentages to see your true odds.
It’s essential to remove the juice before deciding which money line to bet on, as it can skew your actual win probability, especially since the juice can be different between sportsbooks. These no-vig percentages will give you the implied probability percentage for that team to win.
To convert the money lines into a percentage, you’ll need to take your total bet amount and divide it by your total return, so effectively your bet plus your profits. If you multiply your answer by 100, you’ll receive your vig percentage. Doing this for all the money lines in a specific match or market will give you a figure over 100, which is the total vig percentage. The amount over 100% is the juice or cut that the sportsbook takes.
If you divide each vig percentage by the total vig percentage and multiply it by 100, it will give you your no-vig percentage. This is the actual implied probability percentage for that particular sportsbook’s money lines.
Let’s take the example from above again. For a particular match, you have the money lines of -200 and +150. To calculate the total vig percentage, on a bet of $100, you’ll divide $100 by $150 and multiply it by 100 to get a percentage of 66.66% for the odds of -200. For the odds of +150, you’ll divide $100 with $250 and multiply it by 100 to get 40%. So if you add the two percentages together to get 106.66%, then the 6.66% is the juice.
Now, you need to calculate the no-vig percentages. For Team A, you now need to divide 66.66% with 106.66% and multiply it with a 100, which gives you 63% when rounded up by two decimals. For Team B, you need to divide 40% with 106.66% and multiply it with a 100, giving you 38% when rounded up. This is the actual no-vig percentages and the implied probability to win for both teams.
Step 1: With a bet of $100 and odds of -200, using profit calculation, the total return is $150
Step 2: With a bet of $100 and odds of +150, using profit calculation, the total return is $250
Step 3: $100 (Bet) / $150 (Return) x 100 = 66.66% (Team A Vig Percentage)
Step 4: $100 (Bet) / $250 (Return) x 100 = 40% (Team B Vig Percentage)
Step 5: 66.66% + 40% = 106.66% (Total Vig Percentage)
Step 6: 106.66% – 100 = 6.66% (Vigorish/Juice)
Step 7: 66.66% / 106.66% x 100 = 62,49% ~ 63% (Team A No-Vig Percentage)
Step 8: 40% / 106.66% x 100 = 37,50% ~ 38% (Team B No-Vig Percentage)
In some cases, the figures will be much closer to each other, in the case that a winner isn’t as straightforward. The teams could have odds of -120 and -110, making it a much closer match. In the case of money lines like -120 and -110 and a bet of $100, you will have total returns of $183 and $191 if rounded. Your juice percentage will be 55% and 52%, with your total juice percentage 107%. Your no-vig percentage will then be 51% and 49%, which is a much closer win probability than if the odds are plus and minus odds.
When converting your money lines to percentages, it’s also possible to see your break-even percentages. This refers to the percentage of your wagers you’ll need to win to profit at a given moneyline. This is important to look at when shopping money lines, as it’ll show you whether it’s worth risking your money to bet with particular odds. It is also relevant when betting on multiple sites and matches but when using the same money lines.
Say you bet on five different sites or five different matches, but all give you the same money lines. When you calculate the vig percentage of that line, it will also be the figure you look at to determine what percentage of your bets need to be won to break even or make a profit.
For example, when Team A’s vig percentage was calculated and you got 66.66%, that means that if you bet on money lines with odds at -200, you need to win 66.66% of your wagers to break even and win more than 66.66% of your wagers if you want to make a profit. An example below will show you a quick chart of different moneyline and their vig percentages or break-even percentages.
Money Line % Moneyline %
-400 80% +400 20%
-300 75% +300 25%
-200 66.70% +200 33%
-100 50% +100 50%
These figures give you an idea of what you can expect the win probability to be across general money lines. For example, the win probability of money lines between -300 and -400 will fall between 75% and 80%. It gives you a quick view to understand the range of the percentages to money lines, though it’s still best to work out the actual win probability percentage of a particular match.
Handicapping the Match
Calculating this figure also gives you an edge when handicapping a game or shopping betting lines from different sportsbooks. Handicapping refers to when bettors do different calculations and research on a specific team or match to determine the actual win probability. This can be done by shopping money lines, calculating the no-vig percentage from several offshore sportsbooks too, and looking at the participant teams’ recent play history.
Experienced and astute bettors can also use this calculation to find a team with a higher actual probability of winning than the given odds for that team dictates. Combined with their knowledge and research on a particular match and the participant teams, they can accurately handicap the game. It gives you a much more accurate estimate of what a sportsbook offers you and what you can expect when betting on a specific team.
Why should I calculate the Moneyline Odds?
It gives you a more accurate and fair estimation of a team’s win probability.
Do I need to calculate it myself each time?
No, there are many online Moneyline Calculators available online. While it’s easy to calculate it yourself quickly, it’s not necessary as long as you have an online calculator/converter. This can remove any stress or potential human errors.
Is it legal to calculate Moneyline odds?
Yes, there’s nothing in any terms and conditions that states it’s not allowed. Many experienced bettors calculate it to ensure they accurately estimate their odds and possible profit.
Convert Your Odds
Converting odds isn’t as complicated as it might look at first and the more you do it, the easier it becomes. Simple steps to the conversion and calculation have been lined out above, allowing you to understand what a sportsbook offers you accurately. Using the quick view chart of the percentages conversion will provide you with a better idea of what moneyline range you want to look for and that saves you the time of calculating moneylines you definitely won’t bet on.
Converting your money lines to win probability percentages not only gives you an accurate estimation of your chances. It also informs you what your break-even total is if you make multiple bets across the same money line. It’s also crucial to calculate the no-vig percentage when handicapping your games to make it easier to properly understand the expected outcome of a game and who you should bet on.
While there are many online calculators you can use that will convert odds for you, it’s always better to understand how the formula works. This allows you to make quick calculations yourself and better understand sportsbooks’ odds. There’s no need to feel confused when looking at the odds on a given money line now. You can read and understand those odds and even calculate your win probability before making a moneyline bet.